It just doesn’t seem possible that mankind will be able to get anything near the EROEI from renewables that we have experienced from fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have allowed our economic growth, our debt-based financial system, and our population growth. I don’t see how renewables can replace the status quo. It seems evident to me that a human population die-off is inevitable. Maybe as a species, though, we’ll get lucky and not even notice a relatively quick die-off.

Continued resource scarcity and unwinding of complexity could easily bring a tipping point towards significant population reduction over a relatively short period of time; while ironically, at the same time, allowing most people a somewhat normal life not characterized by constant war or famine; but instead simply defined by higher general mortality rates which are perceived as a new normal.

An 8 fold increase in the number of people dying every year would create a net population decreasing of about 3% per year even if current birthrates continued unabated. At a 3% rate of decrease, world population would shrink from 7.4 billion to 1 billion in about 65 years. Birthrates, though, would also likely decrease during this time due to a shrinking population base. Therefore, with fairly small increases in net mortality, the current population can drop significantly in a relatively short time. Just ask yourself: “Would my life become unbearably abnormal if instead of only 1 or 2 people close enough to effect me die each year; 8 to 16 died instead?”

Within 2–3 short generations society could be back to living a pre-industrial circa 1800 life style with a world population similar to that era of 1 billion.

SGI Buddhist, Loves Irish and Latin American Literature, History buff, knows a great deal about Medicare

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