Well, I hope so, but I am not optimistic.

All the new oil available now is expensive oil — whether it’s Bakken shale or deep water or arctic oil — and it costs too much for our techno-industrial society to run on. That is why the world financial system is imploding: we can’t borrow enough money from the future to keep this game going, and we can’t pay back the money we’ve already borrowed. All this trouble with money comes from one problem: no industrial growth because oil over $70-a-barrel kills economies; and oil under $70-a-barrel kills oil production. From now on, there is only less of everything for a population that continues to grow.

We have to get another game going, one consistent with contraction and with much lower energy use. But that is not an acceptable option to the people running things. They are determined to keep the current matrix of rackets going at all costs, and the most likely result will be very messy collapse of economies and governments.

I hope your rosy scenario about a quick advance in renewable technology EROEI comes true, but I am not hopeful.

I am 62 years old and live a low energy lifestyle, riding a bike to work, living in a tiny house, gardening, etc., but I see extremely few people younger than myself interested in any of this. When I suggest they collapse now and avoid the rush their eyes glaze over. For the most part they still measure everything based upon an oil-based status quo. If they aren’t making it economically they focus on escapism, if they are making it economically they don’t want to hear about a no growth future since that would cramp their style.

SGI Buddhist, Loves Irish and Latin American Literature, History buff, knows a great deal about Medicare

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